Rajar results a time for reflection
This week’s Rajar figures, as ever, will be much chewed over, analysed and agonised about by the commercial radio sector but in reality they provide a hiatus before the industry plunges into more turbulent seas.
These are the last Rajar figures that track the performance of Emap’s radio brands before Bauer assumed ownership. They are also the last Rajars before new GCap chief executive Fru Hazlitt lays out her vision for the company.
How well her strategy is received and implemented will have significant influence on whether Bauer has a hope of mounting a successful bid for GCap and could dictate the ownership landscape over the course of 2008. Bauer has until 5 March to give a clear intention of whether it will mount a bid for GCap or it will have to wait at least six months before making another approach.
The Emap brands acquired by Bauer seem to have remained relatively steady with Total Kiss Network dropping share 1.7 per cent to 1.6 while Total Magic retained its 2.3 share. It seems Bauer has been given a solid base on which to build a radio empire in the UK – assuming that’s the way the company is minded, and its long term game is still not a sale.
However, looming over all is the matter of digital radio take up. Once touted as the format that would rejuvenate the medium and benefit advertisers with new technology, there are plenty of doomsayers now appearing. These range from former GCap CEO Ralph Bernard saying that digital will never take off unless there is a target date for analogue switch off to a recent report from Enders Analysis, which highlighted the slow growth in revenue from digital stations.
The evidence still hangs in the balance. While reported DAB set sales for Christmas appear robust, the Rajar results show rate of growth in listening via digital has slowed down. The Q3 Rajar figures showed a jump to 15 per cent from 12.8 while for the fourth quarter it has only moved to 16.6 per cent. Add to this the recent closure of three digital only stations in the form of Core, Oneword and Virgin Classic Groove and the omens are not heartening.
Those in the commercial sector can only have so much patience and money to invest in digital. The arrival of 4Radio with the launch of Channel 4’s first national digital radio station in the third quarter of this year may help, especially with the marketing funds bound to be allocated.
But a concerted effort is still needed to demonstrate to the UK mainstream radio-listening public the advantages of the format and the value of forking out for possibly multiple new sets. The early adopters, music aficionados and fans of quirkier programming have already discovered digital. Getting the share of listening to 20 per cent should be a priority for the industry as a whole.
Visit mad.co.uk’s Rajar microsite at http://www.mad.co.uk/Main/Rajars/Default.html
Click here to download our PDF containing the top-line results as well as analysis of the implications for the UK’s key radio stations
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